5 must-read stats Worrying about Matthew Stafford

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5 must-read stats: Worrying about Matthew Stafford Published: Oct 12, 2017 at 09:55 AM NFL Network Analytics Expert Happy Week 6!! Each week I'll be giving you five stats to think about as you make your fantasy roster selections. I am also going to give you three high-ceiling picks at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and a kicker and defense that might be available to stream. I am trying to go outside the top few at each position and find some picks that could deliver exceptional value based on their matchup and opportunity (volume, game plan, projected final score). I'm going to try to avoid listing the players who are too obvious. My goal is to help you think about edging out your Dejounte Murray Jersey opponents with a strong floor and exceptional upside picks. I should also note that these projections will be more solid with each pa sing week of the season. So, the "rules" for this article: Not super obvious. As exclusive as po sible to this article. You give me feedback and we evolve it together. Twitter ( ) is the best for this, unle s you are creepy then just stick to rules 1 and 2. Got all that? Let's go!!! 1. 42 percent That's the percentage of results in which my model has the defense scoring a touchdown against the this weekend, higher than any Jags receiver's individual chances ( has the greatest with 40 percent). Part of this is due to their elite ability to pre sure (20 sacks, most in the league), part is due to their league-low pa ser rating allowed (54.2) and the last part is because they have caused the most turnovers in the NFL (15 total, 10 interceptions). Here's how this one maps out ... Fournette is my RB4 for the week. Jags defense AND defense both great plays. and are high-upside picks. 2. Six That's how many times has been sacked in each of his past two games ... something that has only happened five total times in his career. Over their past two games, the defense has been a much different unit than their first two games (6.5 PPG-allowed versus 32.5 PPG-allowed in the first two, with four takeaways versus 0 in the first two). The offensive line is a big red flag and Stafford has appeared on the injury report ... so in addition to (who you should already be on), has a potentially high ceiling Tre Jones Jersey this week. My model also flags and as risky upside picks. is one of my favorite plays of the week. 3. Seven The NFL Research team came up with a power index (they let me hang out with them ... I bought pizza, so it worked out). They are too modest to say, but it's really good. I love it. We force Bill from the research team to come on the pod to talk about it this week, which is definitely worth the listen. Usually, there are two to three teams with an over 70 percent probability of winning in a single week ... this week there are SEVEN. They are, in order: Denver, Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta, Kansas City, Washington and Jacksonville. Of those, my model only has Houston forecasted for 30 points. My point? Factor in game scripts when you're looking for upside. 4. Things that probably won't last ... 's pa ser rating under pre sure is 0 (league average is 62.4) Miami's defense hasn't allowed a 60-plus yard rusher or a running back to earn 100 scrimmage yards ... yet ( is likely to change that) Washington's red zone touchdown percentage is only 36.4% (third-worst) 5. If-thens ... Adapting post injury-report is one of the biggest keys to fantasy wins -- especially in formats where you have acce s to all the players each week. Here are three, for now. I'll tweet out more as they come in. Again, is in here this week: If no ... gets a bigger uptick and gets a bump too. If plays, expect a shared backfield and some of his short pa ses to be reallocated to . If no Montgomery, Bennett's projection increases and ' volume makes him a better play (but still risky). If no , then, of course, ... but be careful not to overestimate here because I have a lower total score in this game and for the in general than what you might expect. Note: could play (turf toe). If no , becomes a better pick and becomes a nice upside play (but a very risky one). If plays, Tampa Bay's defense becomes even scarier, the potential to shut Arizona's run game down increases, and the score becomes more lopsided in Tampa Bay's favor. (The Bucs are a survivor pick I like.) High Ceiling QB: , Deshaun Watson RB: , , , D'Onta Foreman Keldon Johnson Jersey WR: , , , Jeremy Kerley TE: , Tyler Kroft DEF: , This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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